NFL Betting Odds Explained: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Betting on NFL games has a huge following, and understanding the core types of bets—spread, moneyline, and total (over/under)—is essential for any fan looking to make the most out of their NFL betting experience. This guide breaks down each type of bet, how it works, and key factors to consider for each.

1. Spread Betting

Spread betting is the most popular option in NFL betting. With the spread, the sportsbook sets a point margin that the favorite team must win by to cover the bet, while the underdog can cover by losing within that margin or winning outright.

Example:

• Kansas City Chiefs: -7.5
• Las Vegas Raiders: +7.5

In this example:

• The Chiefs are the favorite, indicated by the negative sign (-), meaning they need to win by 8 points or more to cover the spread.
• The Raiders are the underdog and will cover the spread if they lose by 7 points or fewer or win the game.

Key Points:

• Covering the Spread: The favorite covers by winning by more than the spread, while the underdog covers by keeping the score within the spread or winning outright.
• Push: If the spread is a whole number (e.g., -7 or +7) and the favorite wins by exactly that number of points, the bet is a “push,” and your stake is refunded.
• NFL Strategy: Spread margins in NFL games are typically smaller than in college games due to more competitive team matchups and fewer blowouts, so spreads tend to stay within a few points.

2. Moneyline Betting

Moneyline betting in the NFL is simple—you’re betting on which team will win the game outright. The odds reflect each team’s chance of winning, with favorites offering lower payouts and underdogs offering higher payouts.

Example:

• Buffalo Bills: -200
• Miami Dolphins: +175

In this example:

• A bet on the Bills at -200 means you need to wager $200 to win $100.
• A bet on the Dolphins at +175 means a $100 bet would win $175 if Miami wins.

Key Points:

• Favorites and Underdogs: The favorite is shown with a minus sign, while the underdog has a plus sign.
• Risk vs. Reward: Moneyline bets on underdogs can yield higher returns but are riskier, while favorites provide more predictable outcomes with lower returns.
• When to Bet Moneyline: Moneyline bets are great when you’re confident a team will win outright, regardless of the spread.

3. Total (Over/Under) Betting

In total betting, also known as Over/Under, you’re betting on the combined score of both teams. The sportsbook sets a projected total, and you bet on whether the final score will be over or under that number. You don’t need to predict the winner, just the scoring outcome.

Example:

• Projected Total: 47.5

In this case:

• If you bet Over and the combined score of both teams is 48 or higher, you win.
• If you bet Under and the total points scored are 47 or fewer, you win.

Key Points:

• Team Playing Styles: Teams with strong offenses and weak defenses generally lead to higher total projections, while defensive-focused matchups often have lower totals.
• Weather Conditions: Outdoor games, particularly in colder climates, can impact scoring, especially in windy or rainy conditions.
• Division Games: Division games are often lower-scoring due to familiarity between teams, so it’s wise to consider these when betting on totals.

Conclusion

Knowing how to bet with spreads, moneylines, and totals provides a strong foundation for NFL betting. Each type of bet requires different strategies, from predicting scoring margins with the spread to betting outright winners on the moneyline, or forecasting game totals with over/under.

NFL betting is popular for its intense rivalries and close matchups, so stay updated on player stats, team dynamics, and even weather conditions to make the best possible bets.